Kevin Warsh presta giuramento come presidente della Fed, mentre i trader prevedono rialzi dei tassi nel 2026

Kevin Warsh ha prestato giuramento venerdì come presidente della Federal Reserve degli Stati Uniti, ma investitori e trader continuano a non prevedere tagli dei tassi d’interesse per il resto del 2026.

Intervenendo alla cerimonia, il presidente degli Stati Uniti Donald Trump ha dichiarato che Warsh rimarrà “indipendente” dal potere esecutivo per quanto riguarda la politica dei tassi d’interesse, e ha affermato che i dati sull’occupazione sono a livelli record.

“Per fortuna, a differenza di alcuni dei suoi predecessori, Kevin capisce che quando l’economia è in pieno boom, è una cosa positiva”, ha diTrump. Ha aggiunto:

“Thankfully, unlike some of his predecessors, Kevin understands that when the economy is booming, that's a good thing,” Trump said. He added:

“Abbiamo alcuni debiti che vorremmo estinguere, e l’unico modo per farlo è crescere. Ce ne libereremo in men che non si dica grazie alla nostra crescita.”

Warsh, nella foto a sinistra, presta giuramento davanti al giudice della Corte Suprema Clarence Thomas. Fonte: The White House

“We want to stop inflation, but we don't want to stop greatness,” Trump continued, drawing mixed reactions from investors and economists, who weighed the likelihood of the Federal Reserve continuing to expand the monetary supply through low interest rates.

Lower interest rates are stimulative for risk-on assets like Bitcoin and crypto; however, cheap access to credit can also cause inflationary spikes, as individuals and institutions are encouraged to borrow cheaply and spend money on investments and commercial goods.

Related: Senate confirms Kevin Warsh to lead Federal Reserve

Investors forecast a 0% likelihood of interest rate cuts in 2026

Investors forecast no chance of an interest rate cut in 2026, and potential rate hikes at the remaining Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s (CME) FedWatch tool.

3.5% of investors forecast a 25 basis point (BPS) interest rate hike at the next FOMC meeting, scheduled for June 17, according to CME data. For context, the current Federal Funds Target rate is between 350 and 375 BPS.

Interest rate target probabilities for the June FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

The probability of a 25 BPS rate hike at the July FOMC meeting surged to 17%, and about 67% of investors forecast a rate hike at the FOMC’s final meeting in December.

The lack of interest rate cuts and macroeconomic uncertainty regarding the change at the Federal Reserve could negatively impact risk assets like Bitcoin, crypto and equities over the next several months.

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